|On the road with David Davis Posted by Ian at 4 51 PM on Saturday, April 17|
David Cameron can win a working majority in the General Election with just a five per cent swing, according to former Tory leadership contender David Davis.
When Political Editor Ian Kirby joined him on the campaign trail, he said believes the Conservatives are still on course for a majority of "between 20 and 80."
It’s a confident prediction after the sudden surge in the Lib Dems’ poll standings, boosted by last week’s televised debate.
He explained: "I think we are going to get one of the biggest votes in history.
"And the key thing about securing a swing in the polls is that it does necessarily matter how large it is. It depends on where it happens.
"The wisdom that you need a 10% swing to win is wrong. You need a 5% swing in the right places."
In 2001, William Hague won a swing against Labour of 2%, but managed to win just one seat.
In parts of the country in 2005, the Tory swing was just 0.5%, but it was enough to bag Michael Howard over 30 seats and turn many more seats into closely contested marginals.
And Davis thinks there is another factor which is not showing up in the national polls: "Our candidates have had time to establish themselves in the local coummunity and there we can be a lot more confident we are going to win.
"Most of the time people think their vote doesn’t count for much but this time they think differently, and in marginal seats they know they matter."
In Haltemprice and Howden, Davis is technically defending a 15,000 majority. But at the last election he was the Lib Dem’s number one "decapitation target." Now there are now orange posters on display in his Yorkshire seat.
The former SAS soldier says threateningly: "I rubbed them out."
But David believes any idea that Nick Clegg will automatically go into government with the Labour Party are wrong.
He said: "Nick Clegg will be the most powerful man in Britain. But he has been very careful to retain his freedom to manoeuvre.
"And I think it will be very hard for him to prop up a minority Labour government if the Conservatives have more votes or seats, and therefore a popular mandate."