++ Marginals poll gives Cam 4-seat majority ++Posted by Ian at 5 00 PM on Saturday, May 1
DAVID Cameron is on course to become the next Prime Minister - with a knife-edge majority of just four – according to an exclusive marginals poll in tomorrow’s News of the World.
The Tory leader has pushed ahead as Labour voters desert Gordon Brown for the Lib Dems.
Voters were quizzed in 96 Labour seats where a swing of 4 – 10% will turn them Conservative.
The News of the World’s ICM marginals poll reveals Cameron is on course to win 311 seats - a massive gain of 113 from the last election.
That means Cameron, with the support of the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland, will have a majority of four and will be able to go and see the Queen and ask her permission to form a government.
Tomorrow’s poll shows both parties are tied at 35% in the 96 seats being fought over by Labour and the Tories. But it also reveals recent surge in support for the Liberal Democrats has seriously damaged the Labour Party’s chances, and given the Conservatives a vital lead across the country.
Labour are down 2 per cent since we last polled at the end of the first week of the Election campaign, and the Tories are down 1 per cent, with the Lib Dems up three per cent.
But that tiny change means Labour have lost 19 seats in 3 weeks, while the Tories have gained 3 and the Lib Dems 17.
Based on a uniform swing across the country, Labour will avoid becoming the third party, but are likely to suffer further losses because both the Tories and Lib Dems have mounted last minute raids on previously safe Labour seats in the last week of the campaign.
Tomorrow’s poll also shows a 7% swing from Labour to the Lib Dems. FOR MORE DETAILS AND FULL TABLES COME BACK TO THE NEWS OF THE WORLD POLITICS BLOG LATER.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 28-29th March 2010. Interviews were conducted across the 96 political constituencies which are currently held by Labour where the Conservatives require a swing of between 4% and 10% to win the seat. The results have been weighted to the profile of all adults living in these constituencies. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.