BROWN AND OUT

By Ian Kirby, Political Editor

GORDON Brown's plans for an early General Election were thrown into chaos last night when he learned the devastating results of a News of the World poll.

It revealed a Tory lead of SIX PER CENT in 83 key marginal constituencies—meaning almost 50 Labour MPs would lose their seats.

In a November election the Prime Minister would squander his majority and have to battle for control of a hung parliament.

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Last night after hurriedly ditching his plans for a snap poll, a shaken Mr Brown admitted studying the News of the World's results, but insisted: "I think we would win an election now, sooner or later.

"There were people saying that you should go, there were people saying you shouldn't go."

And he claimed: "I made the decision for a different reason—because I want to get on with the job of change in this country."

But Tory leader David Cameron blasted: "The Prime Minister has shown great weakness and indecision. He has been trying to spin his way into a general election and he has had to make a humiliating retreat."

Our exclusive ICM survey was taken this week AFTER all three party conferences and following Mr Cameron's acclaimed speech in Blackpool.

The devastating poll reveals:

HOME Secretary Jacqui Smith and a host of other ministers would be among 49 Labour MPs to lose their seats.

VOTERS give Gordon Brown's government a thumbs-down in most areas of policy, even the NHS.

BAD results for the new Premier particularly on tax, crime and—crucially—immigration.

EVEN his much-vaunted reputation on the economy is questioned, with only 53% approval. Particularly worrying for Labour is that the vital "Worcester Woman" has turned against him with 10% fewer (43%) giving him their support.

TORY promises on inheritance tax and stamp duty are massively popular.

PLEDGES like those, plus Cameron's 67-minute unscripted address, giving a remarkable bounce to the Tories, with 33% of voters saying they were MORE likely to vote Conservative compared to a mere 16% rise for Labour after the conference season.

ONLY 59% of Labour supporters would turn out for a November election compared to 71% of Tories.

LABOUR would STILL be the biggest party with 306 seats—but the Liberals under Sir Menzies Campbell would hold the balance of power and decide who will form the next government, even though in the marginals they only scrape 12% of the vote.

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Mr Brown called off the election after reading our poll with horror and having a series of heated discusions with aides.

Powered

Our results were a shocking kick in the teeth for them.

They show that in the space of just a fortnight the 11% lead registered after Mr Brown's speech to the Labour conference has plummeted.

In these marginals the Tories now have a 6% lead—44% to 38%.

It indicates that the "Brown Bounce" that powered him through his first 100 days in office—and allowed him to consider going for an election two years before he has to—has suddenly deflated. Despite his bid to distance himself from Tony Blair, only 30% of all voters think he's succeeded while 21% say Blair is better and 45% say there is no difference.

Our poll did NOT take into account likely further Labour losses elsewhere in the country, such as Scotland, which could make the PM's plight even more severe.

The shock survey came after the PM appeared to start the ball rolling for a November General Election.

Tomorrow he makes a major statement on Britain's role in Iraq. And Chancellor Alistair Darling has brought forward to Tuesday both the Comprehensive Spending Review and the Pre-Budget Report, trailing billions of pounds of government spending, due later in the month.

Civil servants were quietly warned to get ready for a month's holiday while a campaign took place.

Mr Brown was expected to have an audience with the Queen on Tuesday and a provisional booking had been made to address the nation on TV.

Plans were advanced enough for key Brown aides to suggest it should be the first modern General Election to be held on a SATURDAY to boost turn-out.

Meanwhile, our pollsters ICM started quizzing voters in the 83 key battlegrounds where Labour and the Tories are fighting most closely for control AFTER David Cameron's closing speech at the Tory conference in Blackpool.

The survey proves that in these key constituencies the Tories are steaming ahead.

A result now would give Labour approximately 306 seats, with the Conservatives behind on 246. It is not possible to predict how the other parties would stand.

However, Gordon Brown would have to go cap in hand to the Liberal Democrats to form a coalition to form a working government.

The Conservatives have spent the past six months pouring resources into these marginal seats to wrest them from the hands of Labour.

Deputy Chairman Lord Ashcroft has put his personal fortune into the scheme, giving each local Conservative Party up to £30,000 each.

But so far it seems money, and a Blackpool conference, well spent. In policy area after policy area, Mr Brown is in deep trouble—particularly on immigration.

A huge 77% of all voters believe Labour has done a bad job. So do 62% of Labour voters. Yet virtually every seat in the poll has significant immigrant populations, which show it is no longer seen as a racial issue.

Similar doubts among Labour supporters are seen in other policy areas.

On TAX, 63% overall are dissatisfied, including 40 per cent of Labour voters. On LAW AND ORDER, 63% are unhappy with Labour including 43% of their own supporters.

The best news for Mr Brown is still his handling of the ECONOMY, but even then his 53% approval rate is less than expected.

On EDUCATION he squeezes ahead by 44% to 42%. And voters overall approve of his handling of the Foot And Mouth crisis by 49% to 40%.

Although Labour voters appear slightly less likely to vote than Tories, it seems there WAS a widespread appetite for a snap poll.

Tatters

A clear majority of voters (55%) said it was right for Mr Brown to call an early election to get his own mandate, with 60% agreeing that it was a distraction that should be got out of the way.

They also did not believe it would be cynical for him to call an election while he is still in his supposed honeymoon period (51% versus 41%).

Ominously, there was also a clear warning about delaying for too long with 49% saying the economy will not be as strong so Labour will damage their chances by delaying.

However, there is a sliver of hope for Mr Brown as he digests our findings. Little more than a third (37%) say the Conservatives under Mr Cameron are ready for government, compared to 52% who disagree.

Mr Brown had spent yesterday at Downing Street locked in talks with his closest advisers. He over-ruled his own election co-ordinator, Douglas Alexander, who pleaded with him to stick with plans to go to the country two years early.

That advice came despite the fact that the Electoral Register is not up to date.

A senior Downing Street source admitted: "There are a million people missing from the list and if we don't have a clear lead that is a vital factor.

"The register would not have been updated until December and by then it would be too late."

Mr Alexander's reputation was in tatters last night.

A senior Brownite MP told the News of the World: "I hope you note the role Douglas played in this.

"He knew the state of the Electoral Register a month ago but set this thing rolling."

Mr Brown's decision was attacked from all quarters last night.

Tory leader Mr Cameron said: "The reason the Prime Minister has cancelled this election is because the Conservative Party is making the argument about the changes this country needs and people are responding very positively to our proposals. The big disappointment for me, and I think for millions of people, is we are now going to have to wait possibly two years before we can get the real change that we need in our country.

"The Prime Minister says he has a vision for change. Well put that to the people in a general election. This is not the vision for change. It is just a strategy to cling to office."

Labour left-winger John McDonnell blasted: "We have wasted that bounce that we got after Tony Blair left and we have wasted the goodwill that we got as a result of Tony Blair going. People will be angry about that."

And Lib-Dem Leader Sir Ming tore into Mr Brown, saying: "The Prime Minister has belatedly put an end to the charade of last few weeks.

"Gordon Brown has been acting in the interests of the Labour Party and not in the interests of the country."

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1026 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 2-5 October 2007. Interviewing was spread across the 49 most marginal constituencies which are notionally held by Labour with the Conservatives in second place, and the 34 most marginal Conservative held constituencies where Labour are in second place. All these marginals require a swing of 4% or less to fall to the other party. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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Comments

[David E. Jones]

Brown has bombed - the future is Cameron's.

[Peter Bean]

Vote Labour - vote yellow

[zoltix]

This poll is of little real value.
It is a telephone poll, which means it is mathematically flawed. Only those who pick up the phone are questioned. It all depends who answers. Ex directory numbers are not included. Only about 12 people have been asked in each constituency, far too small for any reliability. The sampling and bias errors mean this poll could be 10% out.

[hadrian lear]

i can`t beleave brown hasn`t called an election what a kangawoo govement brown is a lauthing stock,as he isn`t going to let us vote does that mean we should all call him president brown

[Weejonnie]

Zoltix - I am pretty sure that by now the firms conducting opinion polls can factor in bias due to phone ownership etc

Whilst I agree the polls could be 3 or 4% out due to random sampling errors, they could be out just as easily towards the Conservatives as for Labour.

And you should not forget that Labour ran their own polls in these self-same constituencies.

[John Baker]

If the Liberals hold the balance of power, then voting for them will be a wasted vote! Sir Spelling error Mingies or Menzies will back his friend Gordon!
Vote out Brown and not only get our country back - but have a chance to get our Labour party back for the ordinary people.

[David Loader]

"A senior Downing Street source admitted: "There are a million people missing from the list and if we don't have a clear lead that is a vital factor.

"The register would not have been updated until December and by then it would be too late." "

This was Labour legistlation that changed the electoral register starting date to 1st December - how could they not be aware of it??!!

[Tom]

What a load of rubbish to suggest this isn't a valid poll because it was done over the phone. Are you suggesting that on Tory voters answer the phone?
Gordon Brown can win the next general election but to do so, he needs to address the real concerns of the electorate. He could start by building new prisons so that prisoners can finish their sentences. The police won't end up dealing with the same people all over again when they are supposed to be locked up anyway. A significant proportion of those in prison are from other countries, kick them out.

[Tom]

Human rights legislation is responsible for many travesties that have enraged the public. Lets get rid of it and get tough on those who commit crime. Committing crime should result in MINIMUM sentences not maximum. That way people will think a little harder before they commit a crime. If they know they face 3yrs if they get caught, they might just think twice.

[Bet Rayed]

It is essential to get New Labour out of Downing Street. They are the most corrupt, incompetent, shocking government I have ever seen at the helm of my country.

Under this awful government, so-called asylum seekers and other foreigners are flocking to Britain. They don't claim asylum in other European countries because they all want to come to soft touch Britain where they will get put to the front of the queue before British people for housing, people who have paid into the system for years! In addition, they walk all over us.